The Western governments have apparently decided they will not engage even in conventional attacks on nuclear powers--they don't want to risk even the slightest chance of nuclear war. They refuse to call Putin's bluff--or, he has succeeded in making them think he is crazy enough and powerful enough to launch mutually assured destruction--or at least take out major Western cities with WMD. This This doesn't bode well for Ukraine, and it doesn't bode well for Taiwan. It means there is essentially no defense, at least in the short-term, against the territorial excursions of these powers. The West is experimenting with a long-term solution, exclusion of bad actors form the financial system. The problem is, that may be only a short-term solution. The Russians have already developed alternative financial transaction structures, and could use them with their ally China. Russian oil is excluded from the sanctions. The world may also need to exclude Ukrainian wheat in a few months. The US has a monopolistic position in the global financial system, the reserve currency status. China would like to replace the dollar, and this is a step toward, if not that, at least turning that monopoly into an oligopoly. Right now the free world is building semiconductor plants outside Taiwan, to replace the Taiwan technology with production in more politically stable countries. Are we willing to replace Russian oil production--we likely can't do it with solar and wind in the next 30 years--and Chinese production of all sorts of essential daily products? What would the planet-savers and race-baiters say? Think of the Chinese-Russian partnership, self-sufficient in oil and food--and that ever-present threat of nuclear destruction. The West needs to move from single-issue politics to a more holistic approach. Will the single-issue gang give up their power?

Goodbye to the Vaccine Mandate?

 I think it's highly likely we won't have a national vaccine mandate as we enter the New Year of 2022.  The government has read the mood of a vocal minority in the country, and delayed the implementation date of much of the mandate until January 4th.  The government knew it's mandate would create a disaster scenario for the holiday season.  It will never admit the mandate was a mistake.  But by January, the government will be able to claim that along with the development of new medications the mandate created additional vaccinations that reduced or eliminated the need for a mandate.  So it will claim that it is "following the science" which would actually be a first in the pandemic. The President will be able to claim victory over the pandemic.  That will likely work out as well as a previous President proclamation from an aircraft carrier that we had won the Iraq war.

The lesson, in case we need reminding, is that the federal government has become a bloated bureaucracy that will never admit its mistakes. And we can tell a governmental directive is a mistake when ordinary citizens are conscripted to enforce it, because the government's own law enforcement personnel know it's too dangerous.

John Lewis Disses American Voters

John Lewis, I'm sorry you feel Trump is not a legitimate President due to Russian hacking.  However, voters knew of the Russian hacking, and do have the ability to discern fact from fiction, fake from real news.  We also knew that European leaders "meddled" in our election by expressing their feelings about Trump.  The Europeans and Russians are all expected to act in their own best interests, not ours.  Even the candidates seem often to lie or misrepresent facts.  But Congressman Lewis, you insult me and other voters by asserting we are not smart enough to figure all this out and make our own voting decision.  Our responsibility as citizen voters is fundamental to our Republic.  Today the internet gives us a fire hose of information.  Yet we elected officials early in the 19th century when news traveled slowly, and citizens voted with outdated information.  We never have perfect information.  We always have to use our independent judgment to decide.  It's no different today, and this election is no less legitimate because of it's unique set of issues.  I'm sorry that one of our elected officials does not believe in the ability of our citizens to make voting decisions.  If I lived in your district, I certainly would not vote for you because of your disrespect for the abilities of your constituents.

Obama and the Keystone Pipeline

It was pretty cowardly for Obama to hide behind the State Department's decision that the Keystone Pipeline was not in our national interests. I mean, those guys work for him. No question John Kerry does what he's told. The rest of his speech was even more bizarre. He admonished Congress to pass an infrastructure bill that would create more jobs and long-term benefits for America. Gee, I thought a pipeline was an infrastructure project, that like most infrastructure projects, creates lots of short-term economic activity followed by years of service revenue and added value to infrastructure users, both direct and indirect. Obama also pooh-poohed the effect on energy prices and energy security. Security is enhanced because we have reduced dependence on imports from unstable ares. Without this pipeline we'll need to replace the Canadian oil with foreign oil. And the recent Russian plane crash raises all sorts of questions about the growing risks from ISIS. That Canadian oil may be headed for China now. The oil will still be moved, but it will be moved across territory we don't have real control over. There's really not much effect on the environment either way, and that's the really disturbing thing here. Is Obama such a poor trader he couldn't convince the green lobby to let this one go and save their chits for something that really matters? What does that say for his Iranian nuclear deal?

Public Debt Levels and the Presidential Campaign

Leading up to the 2012 election I wrote about concerns over the structure of federal spending and its effects on total public debt in the US. I was concerned that the administration had built structural spending to 24-25% of GDP, while we had never been able to generate more than 18% of GDP in federal revenues. The good news is that the economic recovery has brought tax receipts up to that 18% level, as well as lowered expenses to the 21% level. So deficits are running 3% of gdp or less. This may be as good as it gets, however. Our public debt is now at 100% of GDP. We can get away with this at zero interest rates, but if rates rise 2% structural spending will increase. Another recession or slower growth could also affect the deficit by increasing social services costs and reducing revenue as a percent of gdp. The good news is that the administration has taken advantage of lower rates to push treasury debt maturities to near record long levels. This will insulate us to some degree from rising interest rates at some point. It would seem to me that the presidential candidates should debate the desired ratio of public debt to gdp. If we want it less than 100%, we are going to have run deficits that are smaller than gdp growth. And how will we go about that? By spending cuts, tax increase, tax cuts. Donald Trump, could you please raise this issue while you're still relevant?

The US Government Puts Citizens at Risk For Identity Theft

Is it really any wonder the US Government is the victim of huge hacks? When you get your Medicare card, your identification number is your social security card, printed right on the card, and part of every doctor's records. Who really knows the security standards they hold themselves to. This is a disgrace, as private insurers haven't used social security numbers on their statements in decades, for the most part, and they don't require you to provide them to doctors. Our own government is putting every senior at risk of identity theft. A bill was recently passed that orders HHS to provide cards to new beneficiaries within 4 years, and an additional four years for existing beneficiaries. This is a disgrace. If the government is so far behind on this issue, what does that mean for the future cybersecurity of anything government touches or regulates? Elizabeth Warren should forget the banks and go after HHS.

Hubbub in a Holster

It is always dangerous to make policy changes in the wake of disaster. The President seeks to use the Newtown tragedy not so much to prevent the next one, but to advance his agenda. So his Rose Garden anger/blame speech over the Senate gun control failure conveniently failed to mention another vote related to the bill that only garnered 40 votes. There are problems with the bill which the President actually misrepresented in his fervor to call the NRA liars. When discussing the amendment's prohibition against a national gun registry, he failed to mention it only applied to the attorney general, and not other governmental agencies. As we move on to deal with the important mental health aspects of gun control, it is not hard to imagine HHS deciding it needs to consolidate information to cross-check with mental health records coming from a healthcare system falling under steadily increasing federal control. The Senate should move forward to resolve the issues with this bill. Speaking of post-disaster policy initiatives, it is ironic that a decade ago the liberal establishment railed against Bush anti-terrorist legislation, a lot of which President Obama promised to eliminate, then eventually decided to extend. He's a smart guy, and knows when to switch from principles to public relations. Obama is working very hard to fool the American public again. He's busy taking moderate stances on entitlements and painting the opposition as radicals out of touch with the mainstream. This is all about the 2014 Congressional elections. The divided legislature keeps him from an unencumbered implementation of his "equal outcomes" agenda. I suppose he was growing up in Indonesia and didn't get "equal opportunity" translated correctly--or didn't realize that it didn't exist there. If this occurs, one can only hope that the Congress will realize they need to get re-elected, and that need may trump the President's agenda.