Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Romney delivered a strong performance tonight, against an Obama who looked more like John McCain than himself. Romney won a debate he was expected to lose. He also looked Presidential, perhaps for the first time to a lot of people. This can change things, but there are more debates to go. Meanwhile, the streets of Teheran could provide a major foreign policy victory for Obama that could have a bigger impact on the election than tonight's debate. The Obama administration came under fierce pressure for standing by the last time there was rioting in in Teheran. But the US government has long believed the Iranian regime could one day fall on its own. This year's follow-up to the Arab Spring is more economic than political, and that's usually a better basis for upheaval. Hungry people will fight to the death, having nothing to lose. Political freedom can wait on a full belly. Oil prices dropped. A change in regime would be certain to put Iran's domestic needs first, pumping all the oil it could sell, and probably dropping the Syrian escapade as well as the nuclear project. The Ayatollah can still salvage the situation by throwing Amadinejad under the bus, but one wonders how many times the clerics can pull this ruse off on a sophisticated population. Regime change here could validate the administration's foreign policy, make a more peaceful Middle East, and improve the US economy by lowering the oil price "tax" on consumers. $3 gasoline would swing a lot of votes to the President.