Tuesday, March 1, 2022

 The Western governments have apparently decided they will not engage even in conventional attacks on nuclear powers--they don't want to risk even the slightest chance of nuclear war. They refuse to call Putin's bluff--or, he has succeeded in making them think he is crazy enough and powerful enough to launch mutually assured destruction--or at least take out major Western cities with WMD. This This doesn't bode well for Ukraine, and it doesn't bode well for Taiwan. It means there is essentially no defense, at least in the short-term, against the territorial excursions of these powers. The West is experimenting with a long-term solution, exclusion of bad actors form the financial system. The problem is, that may be only a short-term solution. The Russians have already developed alternative financial transaction structures, and could use them with their ally China. Russian oil is excluded from the sanctions. The world may also need to exclude Ukrainian wheat in a few months. The US has a monopolistic position in the global financial system, the reserve currency status. China would like to replace the dollar, and this is a step toward, if not that, at least turning that monopoly into an oligopoly. Right now the free world is building semiconductor plants outside Taiwan, to replace the Taiwan technology with production in more politically stable countries. Are we willing to replace Russian oil production--we likely can't do it with solar and wind in the next 30 years--and Chinese production of all sorts of essential daily products? What would the planet-savers and race-baiters say? Think of the Chinese-Russian partnership, self-sufficient in oil and food--and that ever-present threat of nuclear destruction. The West needs to move from single-issue politics to a more holistic approach. Will the single-issue gang give up their power?